The monsoon, which was seen more than expected in June, is now expected to remain in the minimum range of normal as well. On Wednesday, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has improved the monsoon forecast. Before the onset of monsoon in June, the IMD had said there was a 101% chance of rain this season, but said on Wednesday that the monsoon would remain normal.
Although rainfall between 96% and 104% is considered normal in the monsoon season, but this time it is expected to be around 96%. The situation is that in August there has been less rainfall by 24.1% than normal. The country receives 880 mm of rain during the entire monsoon. During June 1 to August 31, the country should have normal rainfall of 710.4 mm, but this time only 645 mm of rain fell i.e. there is a 9% shortfall in monsoon rains so far.
If we look state-wise, till now 20 states have received below normal rainfall. Gujarat received 47% below normal rainfall, Rajasthan 10% and Madhya Pradesh 7% less rainfall. At the same time, 10 states have received above normal rainfall. Bihar, which is facing floods, has received 17% above normal and Telangana has received 28% more rainfall than normal.
Only 15 times in 121 years, the decrease in August’s rain is more than 16%
Of the 15 years in which August has decreased by more than 16% in the 121 year record of the Meteorological Department, in nine years (1902, 1905, 1911, 1920, 1930, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2015) El Nino And there has been negative IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole). This year, El Nio remained neutral, but due to negative IOD, rainfall in August was less by 24.1%. There has been negative IOD during South West Monsoon only 23 times since 1901.
Expect 10% more rain than normal in September
There is a chance of 10% more rain than normal in September. This month receives an average of 170 mm of rain across the country. There is a possibility of above normal in many areas of Central India and below normal in North-West, North-East and South Peninsula.
Warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean soaked up rain
IMD Director General Dr. Mrityunjay Mohapatra said that in August usually two areas of depression develop which did not form this time. Apart from this, at least 4 low pressure areas are formed, that too only 2 are formed. Due to this, typhoon activity was reduced over the western Pacific and the Monsoon Trough remained northward from its normal position for most of the day. Due to this, rain remained deficient in the areas of Central India. All this happened especially because of the negative Indian Ocean Dipole.
The difference in temperature between the two ends of the Indian Ocean affects the intensity of monsoon
The Indian Ocean Dipole is the alternating warming or cooling of the western Indian Ocean compared to the eastern Indian Ocean. When the western end is warmer than the eastern, it is called positive phase, when there is no difference between the two then it is called neutral phase and when the western end becomes cold then it is called negative IOD phase, as it is going on now. .